Port Politics: Turkey and Ethiopia Compete for Influence in the Gulf of Aden

Ankara and Addis Ababa have been quietly competing for influence within Somalia, Somaliland and the Gulf of Aden. This comes during the escalation of clashes between Western Coalition forces and the Houthis, making the region a hotbed for geopolitical interests.

In January, Ethiopia mulled over a deal with Somaliland, a region internationally recognised as part of Somalia, which would involve Somaliland leasing a port to land-locked Ethiopia for 50 years, in exchange for a share in Ethiopia Airlines and a potential future recognition of Somaliland. This caused outrage in Somalia, which views Somaliland as a part of its territory, even if the region is de-facto independent. The Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud went on to call Ethiopia an enemy, to call for Somalians to prepare for the defence of their country: "We will defend our country, we will defend it by all means necessary and seek the support of any ally willing to help us." The African Union, The Arab League, European Union and the US all made statements in response calling for de-escalation in response to the concern of rising tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt, Turkey and Eritrea have all aligned with Somalia, with Turkey stating their "commitment to the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Somalia. Other neighbouring nations, such as Kenya and Uganda have not strongly sided one way or another, most likely in an attempt to maintain neutrality.

This mounting international pressure may force Ethiopia to scrap the January deal with Somaliland, however nothing has been officially confirmed. Somaliland ambassador Mustafa Ahmed suggests that both parties “remain committed to advancing the MoU into a final bilateral treaty.” However, Somalia has engaged in a maritime deal with Turkey in February which will serve as a stronger deterrent than international pressure alone. This serves to strengthen existing military cooperation between the two countries. Turkey opened its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, and currently plays a major part in training the Somali military and police, and would now also be able to sell arms to Somalia, following the unanimous UNSC adoption of a proposal to end the arms embargo on the Somalian Federal Government.  

In March, Turkey signed an offshore oil and natural gas cooperation deal with Somalia. This involves exploration, evaluation, development and production of oil in Somalia's territory. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar spoke about potentially sending a Turkish seismic exploration vessel as part of the first phase of this collaboration project. Turkey has proven its ability to take on such partnerships by signing a similar deal with Libya in 2022, where exploration operations are currently ongoing. Such a deal significantly strengthens ties between the two nations, and only affirms Turkey’s support for Somalia during the tension with Ethiopia over Somaliland. Although nothing is confirmed, Ethiopia is unlikely to press the deal with Somaliland in the face of significant Somalian resistance due to the devastating Tigray War and ongoing civil conflicts in Amhara.