Rising unrest in the Eastern Congo

The Eastern Congo has recently fallen victim to a renewed bout of rising instability. This is due to clashes between Congolese government forces and the Rwandan-backed M23 group, around the towns of Goma and Sake. Dozens of soldiers and civilians have been killed in recent weeks, pushing tens of thousands of people fleeing the war towards Goma. It is estimated that upwards of seven million people are now displaced due to this conflict.

The United States have also released a statement over the last few days regarding the conflict. They condemn the worsening violence caused by M23, demanding that they immediately cease hostilities and withdraw from positions surrounding Goma and Sake. Additionally, they call on Rwanda to withdraw all personnel from the DRC and remove their surface-to-air missile systems. This statement comes following reports that Rwandan forces have fired such missiles into the Eastern Congo, and that a Rwandan missile was launched at a UN drone, according to a leaked UN document. The Congolese Army has also accused Rwanda of employing drones to conduct strikes on Goma airport. Rwanda has rejected the American calls for withdrawal, suggesting that the US statement either represents “an abrupt shift in policy, or simply a lack of internal coordination,” causing Rwanda to “question the ability of the United States to serve as a credible mediator” in Africa’s Great Lakes region, the Rwandan Foreign Ministry said.

Who are M23?

The March 23 Movement, or M23, is a militant group that consists of mainly ethnic Tutsis that broke away from the main Congolese army during the M23 rebellion of 2012-2013. During this time, they managed to occupy Goma, until it was retaken by the Congolese Armed Forces and United Nations troops in late 2012. After this, the group entered peace talks and announced a ceasefire. M23 resumed their insurgency in 2017, although the impact of this was insignificant until 2022, when a larger portion of M23 began an attack that resulted in the capture of Bunagana, on the border. Since then, the group have also captured major towns in North Kivu, such as Kiwanja, Kitchanga, Rubaya and Rutshuru. Additionally, the group controls vital roads feeding into Goma, and have displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians. The group is internationally sanctioned as Human Rights Watch (HRW) have reported that the group has been responsible for unlawful killings and war crimes. The UNSC has therefore moved to sanction M23 leaders and implicated Rwandan officials. UN reports also suggest that Rwanda and Uganda were providing arms, troops and advice to M23.

M23’s control of vital routes into Goma risks cutting off food and aid supplies into the town, that now holds more than two million people (from 600,000 a few years ago), according to aid agencies. The Norwegian Refugee Council has said that the advances on Sake pose an imminent threat to the entire aid system in the Eastern Congo, and that approximately 135,000 people have been displaced in just five days in early February. The International NGO Forum in Congo have said that the escalation of fighting now involves artillery attacks on civilian settlements, forcing many aid workers to withdraw.

The group has accused the Congolese government of not meeting peace agreements to fully integrate Congolese Tutsis into the army and administration, vowing to defend Tutsi interests. The group has justified their occupation of the Eastern Congo as a means to combat the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an ethnic Hutu militia that Rwanda links to the 1994 Genocide. Rwandan authorities claim that FDLR have been integrated into the Congolese army, and that Congolese authorities do not protect Tutsi communities in the DRC, who Rwanda claim are victims of hate speech and discrimination. Rwandan authorities have used these factors to justify the situation as a significant threat to Rwanda’s national security. Meanwhile, the Congolese army deny working with the FDLR, and Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has stated that Rwanda cannot take on the role of protecting the citizens of other countries, via the 37^th African Union summit.

Rwanda suggests that Congolese political and military leaders, including president Tshisekedi, have repeatedly declared an intent to invade Rwanda and forcefully change their government. Rwanda also moves to guarantee air defence of Rwandan territory, as the DRC has repeatedly violated Rwandan air space with their fighter jets. Furthermore, DRC have also been noted to have obtained nine Chinese CH-4 attack drones, which will likely be used in a potential offensive. DRC’s military build-up in the province is now seen as a threat to Rwandan security, as Rwanda claims that M23 and Tutsi civilians may be displaced into Rwandan territory. Both countries claim to want peace via regional peace processes, however the UN is warning of a risk of direct confrontation given the extent of the military build-up.

Other armed groups within the Eastern Congo have also engaged in attacks, as armed rebels had killed 15 people in the country’s Ituri province, the second such attack in recent days. It is believed that the CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) militia is responsible for targeting people from the rival Hema tribe. Whilst CODECO was among several Congolese armed groups that had signed the peace deal last year, following negotiations in Nairobi, it is believed that they were directly involved here. The UN estimates that there are up to 120 such armed groups throughout the Eastern Congo, highlighting a potential powder keg situation. Efforts to reduce the influence of such groups have been made by the South Africa led bloc, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) who have deployed thousands of soldiers to fight against armed groups in the Eastern Congo.

The South African bloc is set to intervene in the situation, by deploying thousands of soldiers. South Africa will contribute 2,900 – two of which have been killed and three were wounded in a mortar attack in the Eastern Congo. This comes following the withdrawal of peacekeepers from Kenya, as DRC decided to end their mandate due to inefficiency leading to their withdrawal in December 2023. Additionally, the UN is in the process of winding down their 25-year peacekeeping mission in the Eastern Congo, leaving an opening for South Africa. The SADC troops, including troops from South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania, who have an offensive mandate to support the Congolese Armed Forces to fight rebel groups.

The rise in tensions is also explained by the increasing demand for the Eastern Congo’s vast mineral deposits, and the ongoing power struggle to control them. The DRC, UN and several Western governments all allege Rwanda of supporting rebels here as a means of control over these mines, which Rwanda denies. Nevertheless, illegal mining has surged as people rush to excavate gold and minerals used for the production of electronics. A Chatham House Study suggests that an estimated ten million people are directly or indirectly involved in this mining industry, further highlighting its significance in this conflict. Much of these excavated resources have allegedly been smuggled into Rwanda, as UN expert panels allege Rwanda of profiting from tin, tungsten and tantalum smuggled across the border, as relevant Rwandan exports rose in tandem. These traders have also been accused of directly funding these rebel groups as a means to further exploit Congolese materials.