Shell Hunger: Czechia’s Ammunition Coalition

The European Union has come under criticism for falling short on its promise to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024. This pledge was made last year, also the bloc conceded in January 2024 that it would at most only be able to deliver half a million artillery shells. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said that less than a third of the promised amount had been delivered by 26 February 2024, in a statement made to reporters. Current EU estimates suggest that they can expect to deliver 524,000 shells by the end of March, with 1,115,000 shells scheduled by the end of the year. However, similar promises were made last year. According to German MP Michael Roth, France, Greece and Cyprus have blocked propositions to purchase ammunition for Ukraine from non-EU sources – in favour of developing European military industry, which has not been able to meet the combined domestic and Ukrainian demand. The Czech initiative seeks to correct this by planning to purchase the ammunition outside from a third country.

The current European production of artillery shells is estimated at around 1.4 million shells per year (via EU Diplomat Josep Borrell), whilst the US can generate around 1.2 million 155mm shells for Ukraine by 2025, pending Congress approval. Whilst the US could theoretically send existing stockpiles, the US Republican party is blocking a proposed $60bn aid package which is composed of artillery shells, amongst other arms. Presidential contender Donald Trump has also spoken about quickly ending all US aid to Ukraine upon becoming President, which may endanger currently proposed industrial contracts. Furthermore, the EU production contract is estimated to take around 12 to 18 months, according to the Estonian defence minister, whilst the French Parliament had cited the delivery time as 10 to 20 months last year. The Ukrainian production of artillery shells is not disclosed, but their ammunition shortage is clearly visible. This shell hunger has been cited as a significant reason for recent Russian gains, such as the city of Avdiivka which has seen combat since 2014. It is estimated that Ukraine uses around 2000 shells per day, whilst Russia is able to use 10,000.

This disparity is not entirely due to the Russian war economy, but also due to international collaboration with states such as North Korea. In February 2024 it was reported that North Korea had sent Russia 6,700 containers carrying approximately three million 152mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122mm shells – according to South Korean Defence Minister Shin Wonsik. In return, North Korea is expected to have received an undisclosed amount of food, parts and raw materials. Additionally, North Korea likely received intelligence from Russia regarding how to launch military spy satellites as the country successfully launched the Malligyong-1 satellite into orbit.

In order for Russia to achieve their outlined territorial ambitions the Russian Ministry of Defence has assessed an industrial requirement to produce or otherwise obtain approximately 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm shells in 2024. Production of 152mm shells is expected to increase from 1 million shells in 2023 to 1.3 million in 2024. Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence is sceptical of further significantly increasing production beyond these projections, unless new factories are opened (via RUSI).

The Czechia-led initiative to source artillery shells from third-party countries has located 500,000 155mm shells and another 300,000 122mm shells which can be shipped to Ukraine in weeks, according to Czech President Petr Pavel. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala has announced that in addition to the commitment to purchase 300,000 shells, Prague has also received preliminary permission to purchase another 200,000 shells.

Whilst the source of this ammunition has not been made publicly available, German Newspaper Bild has reported that the origin is speculated to be South Korea, South Africa and Turkey. In any case, the Ukrainian war effort depends heavily on the arrival of these artillery shells, as recent losses have increasingly been attributed to their absence.